Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 1.743312 1.816322 1.892880 1.979539 2.075408 2.178812 2.299597
2025-11-16 1.653050 1.747398 1.849648 1.969751 2.108404 2.265335 2.459264
2025-11-23 1.587735 1.695419 1.814885 1.959073 2.131034 2.333276 2.595310
2025-11-30 1.547397 1.666530 1.801372 1.968048 2.172771 2.422392 2.761269
2025-12-07 1.484932 1.607686 1.748365 1.924903 2.145925 2.422000 2.809158
2025-12-14 1.447576 1.575773 1.724603 1.914376 2.156913 2.468047 2.920874
2025-12-21 1.410747 1.542449 1.696969 1.896619 2.156251 2.497072 3.009852
2025-12-28 1.395801 1.534328 1.698979 1.915259 2.202806 2.591802 3.204039
2026-01-04 1.386743 1.532587 1.708216 1.942857 2.262129 2.708312 3.447297
2026-01-11 1.363867 1.512799 1.693754 1.938354 2.276659 2.760692 3.593864
2026-01-18 1.346366 1.498917 1.685964 1.941876 2.301948 2.830322 3.779858
2026-01-25 1.312773 1.463860 1.649849 1.905665 2.268355 2.806688 3.793731
2026-02-01 1.290818 1.443561 1.632947 1.895979 2.274196 2.847765 3.941013
2026-02-08 1.271398 1.425821 1.618627 1.888962 2.283137 2.894016 4.106721
2026-02-15 1.252428 1.408059 1.603592 1.880115 2.288503 2.934387 4.268299
2026-02-22 1.241620 1.400335 1.601334 1.888746 2.320351 3.021677 4.552190
2026-03-01 1.212680 1.368531 1.566207 1.849476 2.276256 2.973498 4.512480
2026-03-08 1.196520 1.352923 1.552276 1.839923 2.277909 3.006172 4.675756
2026-03-15 1.178572 1.334583 1.534177 1.823683 2.268089 3.017226 4.787828
2026-03-22 1.173931 1.333440 1.539117 1.840799 2.312071 3.130855 5.207321
2026-03-29 1.172445 1.336317 1.549475 1.866089 2.370714 3.279325 5.800398
2026-04-05 1.160613 1.325218 1.540319 1.861972 2.380231 3.332098 6.118427
2026-04-12 1.151828 1.317954 1.536220 1.865198 2.402171 3.412516 6.581505